Bridging the gap between econometrics and real time marketing

Client: Western Union

Agency: Mediahub UK

WU’s lower funnel global media plan can be organised as a portfolio of country x channel ‘cells.’ With 6 core media channels in 90 countries, the global portfolio comprises 540 cells. Each one of those cells possesses a uniquely shaped diminishing returns curve, an observation that led to the genesis for the whole project.

Next Best Decisioning (NBD) uses proprietary algorithms, machine learning and an array of historic and real-time data sets to optimise allocation of spend across WU channels and markets. It works by predicting the shape of every curve in the portfolio relative to all other curves in the portfolio, simultaneously and for any given moment in time. This makes it possible to spend every dollar in the most incremental way. It knows exactly how and where to invest $1, or $100,000,000, in order to maximise ROI.

Delivered during lockdown, NBD is constantly fine-tuned and is outputting a MAPE of 3.5% across all cells.