Domino's Predictive Econometrics

Client: Domino's

Domino’s faced a significant threat from the UK’s Less Healthy Food (LHF) advertising restrictions, effective January 2026, which impacted over 90% of its menu and jeopardized advertising reach and effectiveness. To preemptively address this, Domino's, Havas Media, and Ebiquity developed an innovative predictive econometric framework, transforming econometrics from a reporting tool into a forward-looking business planning engine.

This framework simulated the LHF restrictions' impact on media reach, inventory, and inflation, quantifying commercial risks and identifying optimal investment strategies. It integrated historical effectiveness data with a nested model architecture (Brand Equity, store-level, regional) and employed OLS and Bayesian methods to analyse sales and media performance. The model successfully identified structural breaks caused by LHF regulations to project future scenarios. The analysis revealed critical risks, including a projected 7% loss in effective impressions and a potential revenue decline. In response, it guided a proactive mitigation strategy: reducing reliance on pre-9 pm linear TV, increasing investment in linear audio and OOH, diversifying creative, and leveraging owned channels and non-LHF product innovation, such as Chick ‘n’ Dip. This strategic foresight enabled Domino’s to achieve exceptional results post-legislation. They maintained 96% target audience reach, improved product perception metrics (+2pp for "Quality products/ingredients" and "Menu has options"), and increased overall consideration (+1pt). Crucially, ROI grew +3% year-on-year, media-driven revenue contribution increased by +12.9%, and QSR market share reached a record 8.1%, demonstrating how predictive econometrics successfully navigated regulatory challenges to deliver sustained growth.